Ireland
- Population 2026
- 5.3 million
- Migrant share 2026
- 21.6 %
- Earliest tipping point
- 2090
Status quo
Based on the 2022 Census, the model projects Ireland’s migrant share at 21.6% in 2026, exceeding 50% in 2090 under the baseline scenario. It uses ethnicity rather than birthplace: White Irish people and Irish Travellers form the native group; other ethnic groups form the migrant group. Explore the remigration scenario.
Remigration
Under the defined remigration scenario, Ireland's migrant share falls below 5% in 2070. In the dashboard, this threshold serves as the Institute's orientation point for demographic normalisation and harmonisation.