United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, the migrant population accounts for 23.1% of the census-based population in 2021-2022 and exceeds 50% in 2053 if current demographic trends continue. Unlike most country models, the calculation uses census ethnicity rather than birthplace: White British and White Irish people form the native population, while the other ethnic groups form the migrant population. Explore the remigration scenario.

Under the defined remigration scenario, the United Kingdom's migrant share falls below 5% in 2095. In the dashboard, this threshold serves as the Institute's orientation point for demographic normalisation and harmonisation.