IFR Demography Dashboard

Country methodology

Ireland METHODOLOGY

Population reference year: 2022

Definition and model selection

Ireland uses the 2022 Census ethnicity classification. White Irish persons and Irish Travellers are assigned to the native population. All other stated ethnicity categories, including White Other, are assigned to the migrant model population. Missing ethnicity responses are distributed proportionally within each detailed citizenship category. The model therefore uses an ethnicity-based rather than a foreign-born classification and can retain group distinctions across several generations.

The ethnicity-based model was selected because it captures later-generation group continuity that a birthplace-only definition would omit and provides a common statistical axis with the selected United Kingdom model.

Population construction

Missing ethnicity responses are allocated proportionally within each detailed citizenship category using F5083. Where citizenship is also unstated, the migrant allocation rate is 21.77%, based on respondents with unstated citizenship but stated ethnicity. The age-sex distribution is estimated by combining F5083, F5006 and F5064 through iterative proportional fitting (IPF), while retaining the existing single-age weights. This reconstruction matches published totals but relies on assumptions about missing responses and their distribution.

Fertility, mortality and migration

Fertility is differentiated using the closest available national classification, the mother's country of birth, and transferred to the two ethnicity-defined populations. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both groups.

Baseline migration uses the available gross-flow series for 2015-2024 classified by citizenship. The population, fertility and migration components consequently use three different statistical axes.

Key methodological considerations

  • Population, fertility and migration use different classifications—ethnicity, mother’s country of birth and citizenship—which are not fully equivalent.
  • Missing ethnicity is allocated using observed proportions within citizenship categories, including the citizenship-not-stated category. This assumes comparable ethnicity patterns among respondents with and without missing answers.
  • Age-sex allocations are reconstructed from aggregate tables rather than individual records; five-year age groups are distributed across individual ages using the existing within-group age weights.
  • Ethnicity is self-reported and can retain group distinctions across more generations than birthplace-based definitions.
  • The population baseline uses the detailed 2022 Census; figures for 2026 are model projections, not observed ethnicity counts.

Model outputs

  • Starting migrant-model share (2022): 18.67%
  • Projected migrant-model share (2026): 21.61%
  • Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2090
  • Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2070

Conditional model results, not forecasts. The remigration scenario combines migrant-group immigration at 10% of baseline with additional annual remigration of 1% of the reference migrant stock.

Principal sources