IFR Demography Dashboard

Country methodology

Sweden METHODOLOGY

Population reference year: 2024

Definition and model selection

Sweden includes persons born abroad and persons born in Sweden with one or two foreign-born parents. This is broader than the standard official foreign-background category, which includes foreign-born persons and Sweden-born persons with two foreign-born parents.

This definition was selected because the Swedish register directly identifies persons born in Sweden with exactly one foreign-born parent. It therefore permits mixed parental backgrounds to be included directly without reconstruction.

Population construction

The starting population refers to 2024 and is taken directly from the Swedish population register by individual age, sex, own birthplace and parental birthplace category.

Fertility, mortality and migration

Fertility is differentiated by the mother's own country of birth. The foreign-born rate is applied to the broader model population, including Sweden-born descendants and mixed-background persons. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both populations.

Baseline gross flows for 2015-2024 come from Statistics Sweden and are classified by country of birth. The official series includes the register adjustments recorded in 2023 and 2024; these observations remain in the ten-year average.

Key methodological considerations

  • Fertility and migration are classified by own birthplace, while the starting population additionally includes Sweden-born descendants.
  • The official migration series includes the register adjustments recorded in 2023 and 2024; these observations remain in the ten-year average.
  • The generational reach follows the parental birthplace information published in the Swedish register.

Model outputs

  • Starting migrant share: 35.4%
  • Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2046
  • Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2099

Principal sources