IFR Demography Dashboard

Country methodology

Spain METHODOLOGY

Population reference year: 2025

Definition and model selection

Spain publishes the relevant first- and second-generation information across separate population and survey sources rather than in one current age-sex table. The model combines foreign-born persons with Spanish-born persons who have at least one foreign-born parent.

This combined definition was selected because it is the broadest reproducible measure that can be aligned with the available Spanish population and survey data while retaining naturalised persons.

Population construction

The total population by individual age and sex refers to 1 January 2025. The foreign-born population is allocated from official age-sex data. The second generation is reconstructed from the 2021 ECEPOV microdata, shifted by cohort to 2025 and scaled to the published 2021 benchmark total.

Fertility, mortality and migration

Fertility is differentiated by the mother's country of birth. The foreign-born rate is applied to the combined first- and second-generation model population. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both groups.

Baseline immigration and emigration use average gross flows for 2015-2024 classified by country of birth.

Key methodological considerations

  • The second-generation population is constructed from the 2021 ECEPOV structure and aligned with the 2025 population base.
  • Published survey benchmarks anchor the level of the reconstructed component.
  • Source age groups are transferred to individual ages within each group.
  • The foreign-born fertility rate serves as the available proxy for the combined first- and second-generation population.
  • The construction covers the first and second generation.

Model outputs

  • Starting migrant share: 24.5%
  • Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2057
  • Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2081

Principal sources