Portugal METHODOLOGY

Portugal uses foreign birth as its population definition and therefore represents the first generation. This definition is available with the age-and-sex detail required for the starting population and aligns with fertility and immigration data classified by country of birth. Comparable annual age-sex data for the second generation are not available. Emigration is based on citizenship, the complete published series available for that component.

The foreign-born model was therefore selected as the most consistent reproducible basis for Portugal. Its generational reach differs from the broader definitions used in several other countries.

The 2024 total population is available by individual age and sex. The foreign-born population is available in age groups and is distributed to individual ages within those groups.

Fertility is differentiated by the mother's country of birth and is therefore aligned with the first-generation population definition. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both populations.

Immigration is classified by country of birth. The 2024 immigration structure combines the national total with the latest available birthplace composition. Emigration is classified by citizenship, the complete published series available for this component.

• The foreign-born definition covers the first generation; Portugal-born descendants remain in the native population under this statistical axis.
• The 2024 immigration breakdown combines the national total with the latest available birthplace composition.
• Emigration is classified by citizenship, the complete published series available for this component.
• The foreign-born population is transferred from published age groups to individual ages within each group.

• Starting migrant share: 16.0%
• Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2064
• Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2132

• Eurostat: Population by age and sex and population by country of birth, accessed 15 June 2026.
• Pordata: Total fertility rate, accessed 15 June 2026.
• Eurostat: Fertility by mother's age and country of birth, accessed 15 June 2026.
• Eurostat: Deaths by age and sex, accessed 15 June 2026.
• Statistics Portugal: Complete life tables 2022-2024, accessed 15 June 2026.
• Eurostat: Immigration by country of birth and emigration by citizenship, accessed 15 June 2026.