Norway METHODOLOGY

Norway combines Statistics Norway categories 2, 3, 5 and 6. These cover foreign-born persons with foreign-born parents, Norway-born persons with foreign-born parents, foreign-born persons with one Norway-born parent, and Norway-born persons with one foreign-born parent. Foreign-born persons with two Norway-born parents remain in the native population.

This model was selected to include observable mixed parental backgrounds instead of limiting the population to the narrower official immigrant and Norway-born-to-immigrant-parents categories.

The starting population refers to 1 January 2026. The official immigrant and second-generation groups are available by individual age and sex. The additional mixed-background categories are available only as sex totals and are distributed by age using the closest observed immigrant and descendant profiles.

Fertility is differentiated by the mother's immigrant status and then applied to the broader population that also includes mixed-background categories. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both populations.

Baseline immigration and emigration use average gross flows for 2015-2024 classified by country of birth.

• The additional mixed-background categories are distributed by age using the directly observed profiles of the closest official immigrant and descendant groups.
• Fertility and migration use the mother's immigrant status and the person's own birthplace respectively, while the starting population additionally incorporates parental birthplace.
• Foreign-born persons with two Norway-born parents remain in the native population under the selected parental-origin rule.
• The generational reach follows the parental information represented in the Statistics Norway categories.

• Starting migrant share: 28.2%
• Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2058
• Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2095

• Statistics Norway: Population by immigration category, age and sex (13055), accessed 28 September 2026.
• Statistics Norway: Population by immigration category (05182), accessed 28 September 2026.
• Statistics Norway: Fertility (12482) and births (08555), accessed 28 September 2026.
• Statistics Norway: Period life table (07902), registered deaths (08393) and life expectancy (05375), accessed 28 September 2026.
• Eurostat: Immigration and emigration by country of birth, accessed 28 September 2026.