IFR Demography Dashboard

Country methodology

Netherlands METHODOLOGY

Population reference year: 2026

Definition and model selection

The Netherlands follows the current Statistics Netherlands origin classification. A person has an origin outside the Netherlands when they or at least one parent were born abroad. Naturalised persons remain classified by origin. Persons born in the Netherlands whose parents were also born there are classified as Dutch origin even when migration occurred in an earlier generation.

This definition was selected because it is a directly published broad national classification available by individual age and sex and is supported by a comparatively well-aligned fertility series.

Population construction

The starting population refers to 1 January 2026 and is taken directly from Statistics Netherlands by individual age, sex and origin group.

Fertility, mortality and migration

Fertility is differentiated directly by the mother's origin under the Dutch classification. Deaths are also available by origin, sex and age, allowing group-specific mortality inputs rather than a purely proportional allocation.

Baseline gross migration flows for 2015-2024 are classified by the person's own country of birth. This flow classification does not identify Netherlands-born descendants in the same way as the starting-population definition.

Key methodological considerations

  • Migration flows use own country of birth, while the population definition additionally incorporates parental birthplace.
  • Persons born in the Netherlands to two Netherlands-born parents are classified as Dutch origin under the official system, including later descendants.
  • The Dutch origin concept has a broader reach than definitions limited to foreign-born persons.

Model outputs

  • Starting migrant share: 29.1%
  • Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2058
  • Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2080

Principal sources