Italy METHODOLOGY

Italy combines a foreign-born first generation with an Italy-born second generation defined by at least one foreign-born parent. The required second-generation detail is distributed across several official datasets, which are combined across age ranges.

The first-plus-second-generation model was selected because it includes a substantial Italy-born descendant population that a foreign-born-only definition would omit.

The 2024 population combines the foreign-born stock with reconstructed second-generation components. Ages 15-74 use EU Labour Force Survey evidence by broad age and sex groups. Ages 0-14 use an updated and scaled national estimate. Ages 75 and older are extrapolated from the observed second-generation relationship at ages 55-74. Broad groups are distributed to individual ages using the available population structure.

Fertility is differentiated by the mother's country of birth. The foreign-born rate is applied to the combined first- and second-generation model population. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both groups.

Baseline gross migration flows are classified by the migrant's own country of birth. They therefore directly describe first-generation movements but not the second-generation component of the starting population.

• The second-generation population is constructed from official sources with different reference years, age groupings and statistical designs.
• For ages 75 and older, the observed second-generation relationship at ages 55-74 is extended to the older population.
• The foreign-born fertility rate serves as the available proxy for the combined first- and second-generation population.
• Migration flows describe movements by own birthplace and therefore directly represent the first-generation component.
• The construction covers the first and second generation.

• Starting migrant share: 16.5%
• Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2069
• Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2110

• Eurostat: Population by age and sex and foreign-born population, accessed 23 July 2026.
• Eurostat: Labour Force Survey population by migration status, accessed 23 July 2026.
• ISTAT: Annual Report 2022, Chapter 3, accessed 23 July 2026.
• Eurostat: Fertility, deaths, immigration and emigration, accessed 23 July 2026.
• ISTAT: Demographic indicators 2024 and Eurostat: life expectancy, accessed 23 July 2026.