Germany METHODOLOGY

Germany applies the broad migration-background definition used by the Federal Statistical Office in the Microcensus. A person has a migration background when they or at least one parent were not born with German citizenship. The category includes foreign citizens, naturalised immigrants, ethnic German resettlers and their Germany-born descendants. The starting population generally covers the first and second generation.

The model was selected because it follows an established broad official definition and supplies the age- and sex-specific population breakdown required for the projection. Ethnic German resettlers remain included in accordance with the published Microcensus total.

The total population by individual age and sex comes from Eurostat. Migration-background shares from the 2025 Microcensus are published by five-year age group and sex and are transferred to the corresponding single-age population structure.

Fertility is differentiated using rates for German and foreign female citizens. The foreign-citizen rate is applied to the broader migration-background population, which also contains naturalised persons and German citizens with a migration background. Eurostat data provide the maternal-age profile.

Observed deaths by age and sex are divided according to the population structure, so both groups use the same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule. Baseline immigration and emigration use average gross flows for 2015-2024 classified by country of birth. The movements recorded in 2022 remain part of the observed ten-year average.

• The Microcensus definition generally identifies the first and second generation; later descendants follow the official statistical classification.
• Fertility is differentiated by present citizenship, a narrower axis than the migration-background definition.
• Migration flows are classified by the person's own country of birth, while the starting population also incorporates parental citizenship at birth.
• Five-year Microcensus age-group shares are transferred to individual ages within each group.
• Microcensus shares for private households are applied to the complete population series, including institutional settings.

• Starting migrant share: 31.0%
• Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2045
• Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2111

• Federal Statistical Office: Migration-background definition, accessed 28 September 2026.
• Federal Statistical Office: Microcensus migration-background report, accessed 28 September 2026.
• Federal Statistical Office: Fertility in 2024, accessed 28 September 2026.
• Federal Statistical Office: Deaths and life expectancy, accessed 28 September 2026.
• Eurostat: Population, deaths, immigration and emigration, accessed 28 September 2026.