France METHODOLOGY

Version 1 of the IFR Demography Dashboard does not publish an IFR projection for France. The France country view instead presents the scenarios published by the Observatoire de l’immigration et de la démographie (OID) on 21 September 2026 as an external reference.

In the OID high scenario, people without migration ancestry become a minority around 2050. This is an approximate scenario result under the OID’s definitions and assumptions. In the same high scenario, the OID places the point at which people of non-European origin become a majority of the total population in the mid-2070s.

The OID follows migration ancestry across three generations and uses its own population categories and scenario assumptions. The displayed year around 2050 is not an IFR model result and cannot be directly ranked against the IFR tipping points for the other countries.

France’s long immigration history makes the treatment of successive generations particularly consequential for long-term projections. For Version 1, the IFR has chosen to present the OID’s recently published scenarios as a clearly labelled external reference.

No IFR baseline tipping point, reverse tipping point or remigration scenario is reported for France. The OID study does not include a remigration scenario. Dashboard 2.0 will revisit France within an extended, documented IFR country model.

• Observatoire de l’immigration et de la démographie, “Les scénarios démographiques de la France au XXIe siècle”, published 21 September 2026.