IFR Demography Dashboard

Country methodology

Finland METHODOLOGY

Population reference year: 2026

Definition and model selection

Finland follows Statistics Finland's official origin and background-country classification. A person is of foreign background when both parents, or the only known parent, were born abroad. The population includes foreign-born persons and Finland-born descendants who meet that rule. Mixed-background persons with one Finnish-background parent are generally classified as Finnish background.

This definition was selected because it is the official binary classification available directly by individual age and sex. The published tables do not provide a separate mixed one-parent category from which a broader version could be constructed on the same basis.

Population construction

The starting population refers to 1 January 2026 and is taken directly from the population register by individual age, sex and official background category.

Fertility, mortality and migration

Fertility is differentiated by the mother's official background, which closely matches the starting-population classification. A common national maternal-age profile distributes births by age. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both model populations.

National immigration and emigration series are classified by country of birth. Average gross flows for 2015-2024 enter the baseline projection.

Key methodological considerations

  • Persons with one Finland-born parent generally belong to the Finnish-background population under the official definition.
  • A common maternal-age profile is combined with the separately observed total fertility rates.
  • The classification covers the first and second generation as defined by Statistics Finland.

Model outputs

  • Starting migrant share: 11.7%
  • Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2088
  • Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2084

Principal sources