IFR Demography Dashboard

Country methodology

Denmark METHODOLOGY

Population reference year: 2026

Definition and model selection

The official Danish classification treats a person as being of Danish origin when at least one parent is both born in Denmark and a Danish citizen. The selected model extends the official immigrant-and-descendant population by adding persons classified as Danish origin for whom the register nevertheless records at least one foreign-born parent. Persons whose parental information is unknown remain in the Danish-origin population.

This broader construction was selected to make observable mixed parental backgrounds visible instead of limiting the population to the narrower official immigrant-and-descendant total.

Population construction

The starting population refers to 1 January 2026. Official immigrant and descendant counts are combined with a register-based addition for Danish-origin persons with at least one foreign-born parent. Because the added group is not published by sex, it is divided using the age-specific sex ratio of the Danish-origin population.

Fertility, mortality and migration

Fertility is derived for the official origin groups. The resulting migrant rate is applied to the broader model population, including the added mixed-background group. The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is used for both populations.

Baseline flows use migration by country of birth for 2015-2024. Where native emigration is not directly available in the required breakdown, it is estimated using the closest national birthplace structure.

Key methodological considerations

  • The parental-background addition is divided by sex using the observed age-specific sex ratio of the Danish-origin population.
  • Persons with unknown parental information retain their official Danish-origin classification.
  • Fertility and migration follow the official origin and own-birthplace variables available for those components.
  • The generational reach follows the parental information available in the Danish registers.

Model outputs

  • Starting migrant share: 22.4%
  • Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2156
  • Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2065

Principal sources