IFR Demography Dashboard

Country methodology

Austria METHODOLOGY

Population reference year: 2025

Definition and model selection

Austria applies the migration-background definition used by Statistics Austria in the Microcensus Labour Force Survey. A person is classified as having a migration background if both parents were born abroad, irrespective of the person's own place of birth or current citizenship. Within this population, persons born abroad are classified as first generation, while persons born in Austria are classified as second generation.

This definition was selected because it is the established national migration-background measure and provides the age- and sex-specific information required for the projection.

Population construction

The total population by individual age and sex is taken from the population register for 1 January 2025. Migration-background shares by age group and sex are taken from the 2025 Microcensus annual average and applied to the corresponding single-age register population. Since the Microcensus covers private households, this procedure extends the observed distribution to the complete register population, including persons living in institutional settings.

Fertility, mortality and migration

Fertility is differentiated using rates for Austrian and non-Austrian female citizens. This is a narrower classification than the migration-background definition because naturalised women remain in the migration-background population but are included among Austrian citizens in the fertility statistics. Age-specific fertility data from Statistics Austria determine the maternal-age profile.

The same age- and sex-specific mortality schedule is applied to both model populations. Baseline immigration and emigration are based on average gross flows for 2015-2024 and are classified by country of birth under the long-term migration definition.

Key methodological considerations

  • The official migration-background measure covers the first and second generation; later descendants follow the classification of the published statistics.
  • Fertility is differentiated by citizenship, a narrower axis than the parental-background definition used for the starting population.
  • Migration flows are classified by the person's own country of birth, while the starting population also includes Austria-born descendants.
  • Published age-group shares are transferred to individual ages within each group.
  • The construction combines the register population at 1 January 2025 with the 2025 Microcensus annual average.

Model outputs

  • Starting migrant share: 28.2%
  • Baseline tipping point above 50%: 2052
  • Reverse tipping point below 5%: 2091

Principal sources